NH Primary: Dewey Defeats Truman (Updated)
Dang.
This is why I try so hard (yet fail so often) to not predict the outcome of political campaigns.
So, let's recap. Hillary Clinton wins this year's "Comeback Kid Award," doing something the original Comeback Kid never did: win the New Hampshire primary. Barack Obama gets the culinary workers union endorsement in Nevada, which I'm told "ensures his victory" in the caucuses there. In Michigan, Hillary is looking pretty smart now for leaving her name -- virtually unopposed -- on the ballot, so she'll get some positive press after her win there --and they'll count those delegates even if the DNC doesn't. And South Carolina? Wait and see. Same for Florida. And as for Super-duper Tuesday, it might as well take place in a galaxy far, far away.
[UPDATE: Cynics will point out that this is two elections in a row where the Clinton team was shocked by the results -- not exactly inspiring confidence in whoever is running that campaign.]
In other news:
John Edwards, who slammed Hillary for crying (and then blew off the question as to whether he himself had ever cried in a campaign setting) must feel kind of ... silly this morning. He'll be reading stories about how women voted for Hillary out of sympathy and solidarity, as evidenced by numbers showing that one-third of voters had not decided on their choice until the final three days of the campaign.
In other words, look for plenty of stories about how Edwards got trumped by the gender card ... again. Paging Rick Lazio!
[Actually, and in all fairness to Edwards, Clinton's win may have owed much more to the wave of Independent voters who voted for McCain and not Obama. Similarly, how'd the youth vote do -- did they turn out for Obama this time? I haven't seen any final results on that.]
Would it have killed John McCain to read his victory speech off a teleprompter? I got tired of looking at the top of his head while he read his dreadful victory speech word-for-word in that inconguous sing-song voice last night.
Mitt Romney: If you get a chance, watch any video of Romney's speech last night. Actually, watch Ann Romney, who was standing behind and to Mitt's left. When he says, "Well, we won another silver medal," Ann Romney briefly touches the side of her nose. In poker parlance, this is called "the tell." In other words, she's tired of hearing about the damn silver medals already and probably told him that when all the volunteers and campaign officials finally left them alone. Bet you a nickel!
Mike Huckabee: Anything is possible for him at this point.
Rudy Ghouliani: The traditional media has dubbed him the "real winner" last night, apparently because all his opponents are in disarray. That might be, but at some point the dude has to put some points on the board. That said, he did beat Ron Paul.
UPDATE: Fred Thompson: Yes, he got smoked by Dennis Kucinich AND Ron Paul.
Speaking of smoked (nope, much as you'd like, this isn't a Stoner reference) Edwards smoked McCain in raw numbers. I like that trend, nobody turning out for the GOP.
And speaking of speeches, Ron Paul just winged it, and went at least 40 unwatchable minutes on C-Span until they cut him off to show Edwards give the same concession speech he gave in Iowa.
Nevada's going to be another tight one, and Richardson's last chance to play spoiler.
But in the BIG news, I'm starting my own polling firm. Hell, I got a dart board and some dice around this house somewhere. I think that's all you need to predict these things as well as Gallup.
GOP slogan for 2010 midterms if Clinton wins and doesn't get out of Iraq: "Hillary cried and people died."
I got two words for you: "I Ching."