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Dang.

This is why I try so hard (yet fail so often) to not predict the outcome of political campaigns.

So, let's recap. Hillary Clinton wins this year's "Comeback Kid Award," doing something the original Comeback Kid never did: win the New Hampshire primary. Barack Obama gets the culinary workers union endorsement in Nevada, which I'm told "ensures his victory" in the caucuses there. In Michigan, Hillary is looking pretty smart now for leaving her name -- virtually unopposed -- on the ballot, so she'll get some positive press after her win there --and they'll count those delegates even if the DNC doesn't. And South Carolina? Wait and see. Same for Florida. And as for Super-duper Tuesday, it might as well take place in a galaxy far, far away.

[UPDATE: Cynics will point out that this is two elections in a row where the Clinton team was shocked by the results -- not exactly inspiring confidence in whoever is running that campaign.]

In other news:

John Edwards, who slammed Hillary for crying (and then blew off the question as to whether he himself had ever cried in a campaign setting) must feel kind of ... silly this morning. He'll be reading stories about how women voted for Hillary out of sympathy and solidarity, as evidenced by numbers showing that one-third of voters had not decided on their choice until the final three days of the campaign.

In other words, look for plenty of stories about how Edwards got trumped by the gender card ... again. Paging Rick Lazio!

[Actually, and in all fairness to Edwards, Clinton's win may have owed much more to the wave of Independent voters who voted for McCain and not Obama. Similarly, how'd the youth vote do -- did they turn out for Obama this time? I haven't seen any final results on that.]

Would it have killed John McCain to read his victory speech off a teleprompter? I got tired of looking at the top of his head while he read his dreadful victory speech word-for-word in that inconguous sing-song voice last night.

Mitt Romney: If you get a chance, watch any video of Romney's speech last night. Actually, watch Ann Romney, who was standing behind and to Mitt's left. When he says, "Well, we won another silver medal," Ann Romney briefly touches the side of her nose. In poker parlance, this is called "the tell." In other words, she's tired of hearing about the damn silver medals already and probably told him that when all the volunteers and campaign officials finally left them alone. Bet you a nickel!

Mike Huckabee: Anything is possible for him at this point.

Rudy Ghouliani: The traditional media has dubbed him the "real winner" last night, apparently because all his opponents are in disarray. That might be, but at some point the dude has to put some points on the board. That said, he did beat Ron Paul.

UPDATE: Fred Thompson: Yes, he got smoked by Dennis Kucinich AND Ron Paul.

(Cross posted at Daily Kos, with poll)

"Those who live by the crystal ball eat broken glass."

---- Michael Swanson, Wells Fargo Bank economist, 2004.

I'm not much of one to make predictions, but I do like looking at every possible angle. So with that in mind, I thought I'd collect a couple of the better pieces of electoral analysis for you today. They're pretty brief, but they take a look at the field the same way I might.

For the Democrats:

You don't need me to tell you that Iowa is close. It could be taken by any of the top tier Dems. Blitz boy, in an excellent diary that I'm summarizing here, has the Democratic race looking like this:

  • IF Edwards wins Iowa AND IF Clinton comes in second, Obama is wounded. Clinton probably takes NH, MI and NV. Super Tuesday spells the end of the race: Clinton wins.
  • IF Edwards wins Iowa, AND IF Hillary comes in third, then NH is a three-way race.

    Here's where it gets complicated:

    • IF Hillary then wins in NH, THEN she's the nominee.
    • However, IF Edwards is the NH winner AND IF Clinton is second, THEN Obama is toast. Clinton probably wins NV, SC and the nomination.
    • Lastly, IF Obama wins in NH AND IF Clinton is second, THEN she will still win MI and recover in NV. She's looking good on Super Tuesday.
    • Regardless, IF Clinton is third in NH, THEN she's toast and the race is between Edwards and Obama. Advantage: Obama.
  • IF Obama wins Iowa AND NH, THEN he wins the nomination.

  • IF Clinton wins Iowa, THEN it's over. She wins the nomination.

On the Republican side, Pat Buchanan has it this way:

  • First off, IF Romney wins Iowa, THEN he'll win NH and MI and will probably be the nominee.
  • However, IF Huckabee wins Iowa AND IF McCain's recent progress in NH is for real and he wins there, THEN Romney is on life-support. At that point, McCain has a real chance at the nomination by becoming the anti-Huckabee, especially if Thompson drops out and endorses him before SC. However, IF Huckabee wins SC, THEN Huckabee has the inside track.
  • In fact, IF Huck wins Iowa AND IF Romney wins NH, THEN its curtains for everyone else and it will be a two man sprint to the finish: Mitt vs. Huck.
Summary observations on the rest of the field:
  • Giuliani is close to toast. He'll lose Iowa and NH, then MI and SC. Even now, his firewall in Florida is crumbling. By Super Tuesday, IF he is 0-5, THEN it's over for him.
  • Same for Thompson. He might have a good showing in Iowa (IF Romney and Huckabee rip each other apart), but he probably won't win there. He will also not win NH (where he is polling behind Ron Paul). Nor will he win in MI. After all that, he may not even make it to SC (where he is polling #3 behind Romney and Huckabee), let alone win it. In fact, IF he flops in Iowa, THEN he'll drop out and endorse McCain (see above).

So, two weeks out from Iowa, here are the odds, according to Pat Buchanan:

  • Giuliani: 20-1
  • Thompson: 20-1
  • McCain: 6-1
  • Romney: 3-2
  • Huckabee: ?? Buchanan isn't taking bets on Huck, although he does see him likely finishing in the top two.
What do you think?

Mike Huckabee's support is soaring ... and why not? He's not a corrupt, cross-dressing sex addict from pushy New York City. No! Mike is not 178 years old and didn't sponsor a bill to send millions of Mexicans into Iowa to steal your job and do the Lambada with your daughter. No! Mike isn't made of plastic; he doesn't have the soul of a gameshow host from the 1970s and there's nothing magic about Mike Huckabees underwear.

If I was having more fun, I'd have to be twins.

Fun:
Huck: “Don’t Mormons believe that Jesus and Satan were brothers?”

Funner:
Christopher Hitchens on Huck: “[He’s a] moon-faced true believer and anti-Darwin pulpit-puncher from Arkansas who doesn’t seem to know the difference between being born again and born yesterday.”

Funnest:
The thought bubble above Benito Giuliani’s head: “w00t! I’m the moderate in this race!”

If I was having more fun, I'd have to be twins.

Fun:
Huck: “Don’t Mormons believe that Jesus and Satan were brothers?”

Funner:
Christopher Hitchens on Huck: “[He’s a] moon-faced true believer and anti-Darwin pulpit-puncher from Arkansas who doesn’t seem to know the difference between being born again and born yesterday.”

Funnest:
The thought bubble above Benito Giuliani’s head: “w00t! I’m the moderate in this race!”

Rudy's Ties to a Terror Sheik

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Wayne Barrett has published a bombshell story about how Rudy Giuliani's business contracts tie him to the man who let 9/11's mastermind escape the FBI.

It is a masterful job of investigative reporting, but it is a tremendously complex story. I have boiled it down to one picture that hopefully will allow you to get what Barrett is saying.

Click graphic to see full-sized version. Then go read the story.

  • Breaking News: "Musharraf Expects To Quit As Army Chief By End of Month." Riiiiiiight. And Larry Craig expects to leave the US Senate by the end of October.

  • When Brian Williams guest-hosted on SNL a couple of weeks ago, it went a long way in changing my opinion of him. But this softball interview with Rudy Giuliani reminds me again why I didn't like him in the first place.

  • Speaking of Williams, apparently his ratings are up post-SNL. Then again, so are Katie Couric's and she wasn't even on the show.

  • Judith Regan is suing News Corp. over her firing in the OJ book affair. She's claiming (among other things) that Murdoch tried to ruin her reputation to protect Rudy Giuliani's. You know -- she was boffing Bernie Kerik and they were afraid she'd blab about it. Sounds to me like they all -- Murdoch, Giuliani, Kerik, Regan -- deserve each other.

  • Bush's plan for the economy: prop it up with matchsticks and duct tape until January 20, 2009. Then blame the new president for ruining it.

  • James Carville compares Don Imus to Bill Clinton.

  • A Wiki site has leaked the Gitmo Camp Delta manual online. Or at least, ahem, that's what they tell me.

  • Silence of the Lambs: Baghdad, post-surge. [Note: for those of you who didn't read the novel, the reference is to the silence that was heard after the lambs had been slaughtered; it haunted the novel's protagonist.]

  • Chris Bowers: "If Obama wins Iowa and New Hampshire, he takes the nomination." Maybe yes, maybe no. One thing for sure -- of all the top tier Dems, he has shown the most upward momentum over the past 30 days or so. Even the prediction markets are starting to reflect that. I just wish he had more of Jack Kennedy in him and less of Adlai Stevenson.

  • Matt Stoller asks whether the negative attacks on Clinton are working. Short answer: maybe.

  • Got to know when to fold 'em: Apparently, Gov. Spitzer has decided to abandon a plan to issue New York driver's licenses to illegal immigrants.

Giuliani's Weekend At Bernie's

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The Sunday talk shows have a lot to say about Giuliani's indicted crony, Bernie Kerik.

At the top of the news this morning: witnesses allege that Hillary Clinton failed to tip a waitress in Iowa recently. The Clinton campaign disputes that.

In other news, Bernie Kerik, former police commissioner of New York City, former nominee to head the Department of Homeland Security, and protege and former business partner of Rudy Giuliani, was indicted today.

Giuliani: I Believe I Can Fly

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Barring a surprise consolidation of Christian evangelicals behind Mike Huckabee, it looks now like Rudy Giuliani will probably get the Republican nomination. That said, if you're a Democrat, how do you fight this guy?

I think Josh Marshall takes an interesting approach -- mockery and ridicule:

So far Rudy Giuliani has told us he was a 9/11 recovery worker, an expert on torture and 'enhanced interrogation' techniques from his days as US Attorney and now commander-in-chief of New York City. In Tuesday's episode of TPMtv, we ask the question ... Rudy Giuliani, Grade School Fibber or World Class Megalomaniac? You watch & decide...

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