This is an individual post from E Pluribus Unum
There's more on the main page.


Is Giuliani's “Electability” Really A Big Deal?

Speaking of William Kristol and Hillary Clinton...Kristol challenges Giuliani's "electability" argument:

The difference in Rudy's relative performance and Thompson's [versus Hillary in the polls] really isn't that great. And it's not as if Rudy is defeating Hillary while everyone else is losing. They're all losing, in accord with the current generic gap between the parties. Indeed, six months ago Rudy was running 4 points ahead of Clinton (in the Real Clear Politics average), whereas he's now 6 points behind. So the notion that Rudy would significantly outperform other Republicans in the general election, or that Rudy alone can magically save the GOP from defeat, or that longer exposure to him helps with swing voters - all of this is far from clear.
OK, so Kristol buries the lede: Giuliani has lost 10 points to Clinton in the last six months. And all the others are doing even worse than Giuliani.

And this doesn't even begin to address the possibility that Christian evangelicals will peel off and vote for a third-party candidate -- or even just stay home -- if Giuliani gets the nod.

And, frankly, we haven't even gotten to the point where people -- independents -- have begun to dig into Giuliani's crackpot past, e.g., the miles and miles of audio tape from his NYC radio show. Wait til that starts to sink in.

P.S. Speaking of Christian evangelicals. Why aren't they supporting Mike Huckabee? He's polling below the margin of error and his fundraising totals are abominable. Shouldn't he be their guy? He's got it all -- and he's loads more personable than Sam Brownback. IJS.


Post a comment

(If you haven't left a comment here before, you may need to be approved by the site owner before your comment will appear. Until then, it won't appear on the entry. Thanks for waiting.)

Full Feed RSS

Creative Commons LicenseThis weblog is licensed under a Creative Commons License.
Powered by
Movable Type 3.2