Democrats Can't Win By Being Smarter Than Republicans
(cross posted at Daily Kos)
You heard me right. There is no correlation between being smarter than your opponent and actually, you know, winning the election. It is emotions -- not intellect -- that play a crucial role in shaping our values and beliefs.
If you've worked in sales and/or marketing you "get it." And if you sneer at people who do, you're going to lose elections. It's a paradox, I'll admit: intellectually (as backed up by science) we know now that if a message is purely rational, it isn't going to be successful in changing the way people vote. If anything, emotions veto rationality.
Listen to Drew Westen, author of The Political Brain: The Role of Emotion in Deciding the Fate of the Nation:
A dispassionate mind that makes decisions by weighing the evidence and reasoning to the most valid conclusions bears no relation to how the mind and brain actually work.If you saw Hardball the other night you know what I'm talking about. Chris Matthews had on Ann Coulter. Elizabeth Edwards called in and asked (very politely) that Coulter stop with the insults and trash talk already. It was excruciating. It was like watching a responsible adult having a conversation with a bag of worms. The most revealing moment? When someone in the audience (a shill?) shouted, "Why isn't John Edwards making this call?"
Bingo -- point made: Edwards is a sissy hiding behind his wife's skirt. Fair? Of course not. Effective? Unfortunately, very much so.
Here's another example. Remember this moment from the 2000 campaign?
George W. Bush berated Al Gore during the 2000 presidential debates for alleged funny business in his fund-raising...You don't remember it because Gore never -- unfortunately -- actually said it.Bush said, “You know, going to a Buddhist temple and then claiming it wasn’t a fund-raiser isn’t my view of responsibility.”
It was a direct attack on the honor of a fellow Southerner, and Gore wasn’t taking it. “You have attacked my honor and integrity,” the vice president shot back. “I think it’s time to teach you a few old-fashioned lessons about character. When I enlisted to fight in the Vietnam War, you were talkin’ real tough about Vietnam. But when you got the call, you called your daddy and begged him to pull some strings so you wouldn’t have to go to war. So instead of defending your country with honor, you put some poor Texas millworker’s kid on the front line in your place to get shot at. Where I come from, we call that a coward...”
I guess the good news is that Westen has been approached by several unnamed Dem candidates this time around. Honestly, though, I'd be hard-pressed to come up with any Dem who could swing their stick in the way Westen suggests...
...on abortion, for example:
“My opponent puts the rights of rapists above the rights of their victims, guaranteeing every rapist the right to choose the mother of his child. . . My opponent believes that if a 16-year-old girl is molested by her father and becomes pregnant, she should be forced by the government to have his child, and if she doesn’t want to she should be forced by the government to go to the man who raped her and ask for his consent.”...or gun control:
“My opponent thinks you shouldn’t have to show a photo ID or get a background check to buy a handgun. He thinks anyone who wants an AK-47 should be able to buy one, no questions asked. What’s the point of fighting terrorists abroad if we’re going to arm them over here?”Quick -- which Dem candidate(s) can talk like this? Now think about which Republican candidate(s) can do it. I'll bet you there are more Republicans on your list than Democrats.
Yes, yes -- I know what you're thinking: this is the difference between Democrats and Republicans. We have a conscience, they don't; we are intellectually more able to find, and explain, the subtle nuances in the issues, they cannot; we're tolerent, they're not; blah blah blah. This is all very true, but it's not relevant, nor even remotely helpful.
Fact is, neuroscientific research (using brain-imaging devices) confirms what we already know (and feel!): that when voters evaluate candidates in a campaign context, it is the "emotion circuits" (not the rational frontal lobes) that are responding most intensely.
Can people rise above that? Perhaps. Can the right candidate make that happen? Not sure. Do we have any proof that it has ever happened before? Sadly, no. In fact, if history has shown us anything it is that all the winning presidential candidates from the last 70 years had an instinctive grasp of Westen's thesis -- especially as compared to their opponents.
This should not be discouraging news. We've got candidates who can do this. But we cannot be complacent or whine about "lowering our standards." We canNOT afford to ignore this advice. Because if we do, we may be watching President-elect Fred Thompson being sworn in on January 20, 2009.
Comments
What the f*ck have I been saying?
1. Democrats need to show that they have a spine.
2. Democrats need to show that they have the courage of their convictions and values.
3. Democrats need to cajole, ridicule, and/or shout down the pampered press poodles every time they start spouting Republican propaganda and otherwise treating Democrats like there is anything equivalent between their progressive public policies and Republican policies of social de-construction (in other words, f*ck Joe Klein and David Broder with a sharp stick).
No. The difference is that, relatively speaking, Democrats represent the common man, common sense and common decency. They need to start acting like they are fighting against an enemy of all of those things (see points 1., 2., and 3.).
Posted by: shep
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June 27, 2007 06:57 PM
I've been letting this mull over in my head -- like stinky cheese I don't know if it got better or worse.
One: John Edwards on the Hardball follow-up yesterday. All he talked about was standing up and fighting "the crazies. Short of getting down into the sewar with the Coultergeist, I thought this was indeed an effective way to handle it. And he called out Karl Rove by name as well. The Edwards campaign dominated the end-of-the-quarter new cycle, took a stand, took the high road, made progress in cutting into Hillary's best demographic (women), and spoke for the liberal Coulter-hating base -- all by going out of their way to pick a fight that did not include bashing any Dems.
Oh, and if you didn't catch it last night, Elizabeth was chatting in a liveblog on KOS last night. (Best quotes collected here.)
Two: Fighting the right on their terms, in their way, opens the door to more -- not less -- of their patented obscurations unless you just come out and call them a "liar." And "them's fightin' words."
If you're trying to project an image of dignity and likeability, that's a dicy way to go. Even if you win the argument, you risk turning off the vast majority of fense-sitting indifferent voters (and doners) who may just see you (on an emotional level) as no better that your opponent.
We win by being better -- and they are better at the dirt because they can't win on a logical review of the issues. Edwards pushs the envelope as a candidate by calling Coulter (and Rove) or the others "crazies." It was as close as I've seen a Dem candidate get to playing in the GOP mudpile directly, not through surrogates.
And if it was all done by design, it speaks well for their strategy. And if it was done on the fly, seeing Coulter as a target of opportunity, it speaks even better about their instincts and the flexibility of their organization.
Tip your hat guys. This round went to the Edwards folks.
Posted by: Mark Adams
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June 28, 2007 07:04 AM
The traditional way to handle these attacks is to use surrogates, i.e., high-profile allies that are not directly tied to the campaign. And, if you get the nomination, it is your VP candidate who gets to do it. (google "Dole hatchetman")
However you do it, the candidate stays above the fray, out of the mud. But the message is sent.
Edwards has another challenge: he is only top-tier Dem candidate that is a white male, i.e., "fair game." Clinton and Obama get a certain amount of latitude because picking on them opens up a host of questions about racism and sexism. Even Richardson (who is sinking fast) gets some breathing room because he is Hispanic and the Republicans are desperately hoping they can hang on to some portion of that vote. Good luck.
That said, Obama is taking a lot of heat among the crazies for his (nearly non-existent) Muslim heritage. And what else is there left to say about Hillary -- that she risks being seen as a gangster when she parodies the hottest cultural phenomenon of the year? Lame.
No, it's Edwards who has a big old target on his back. So Giuliani gets to imply that Edwards is frivolous (he's a trial lawyer, get it?) and Coulter gets to call him -- well you know what she does.
What I wish is that Edwards would talk more about his main strength as a Democrat: his Southern heritage. He should play it off against the amped-up big-city corruption and insanity that is Rudy Giuliani and Ann Coulter. Elizabeth alluded to that somewhat in her confrontation. Maybe John should too.
Posted by: Ara Rubyan
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June 28, 2007 08:36 AM
No. Just No.
You guys sound like Democrats, and I mean that in the worst “Bob Shrum” kind of way.
Liar?! Democrats are called everything in the book: Kerry and Gore – liars, Bill Clinton – rapist, Edwards – pussy, Hillary – shrew, Obama – terrorist sympathizer. You know what you look like when you’re called that and you sit there smiling like an idiot (whoops, I think I gave that away) and let your “surrogates” reply?
You know what you look like when you watch the criminal, anti-democratic and traitorous sh*t the Republicans have been doing, aided and abetted by the MSM, for the past 27 years and respond to that by “trying to project an image of dignity and likeability”?
“Fence-sitters” want to see a leader who looks like they believe in something. They want to see a leader who looks like they will stand up for them and themselves. They want to see some toughness from the people they want to protect them from threats at home and abroad.
Haven’t the Republicans, who have offered nothing else but triumphalism, hatemongering and tax cuts taught you anything?
Fight fair but fight like hell. If there ever was one, now is the time for some honest-to-goodness righteous indignation.
One more thing: Elizabeth Edwards didn’t win the last cycle by playing into the way-too-late, Democrat hamstringing, beltway-elite calls for more civil discourse. She won because she called out and stood up to a despicable bully. I’m not sure where I read it but it took about two seconds before someone said: “If Elizabeth Edwards was running, she’d have my vote.”
Posted by: shep
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June 28, 2007 10:32 AM
What Greg Sargent said:
Posted by: Mark Adams
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June 28, 2007 02:29 PM
Makes sense. And good for her for showing some outrage. It didn't seem to hurt her politically one bit, did it?
But why not shame them directly: "Chris, why give her a platform to spew that sort of toxic rhetoric. If people want that, they can buy her books."
No one with a heart and a spine could hear some of the personal crap that gets thrown at Democrats and not think, "damn, I'd sure tell that assh*le to go Cheney himself." One thing that makes Democrats look like cowards is that they often seem afraid to say what they really think.
e.g., “I think it’s time to teach you a few old-fashioned lessons about character..."
Posted by: shep
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June 28, 2007 03:08 PM
As usual, Digby says it better:
“While I think it's great to engage in a dialog about "hate speech" and try to educate the nation about how we should all get along, while we jabber they are out there behaving like miscreant adolescents and pushing powerful primitive buttons against which rational dialog just can't compete.
[snip]
People tend to personalize politics and put politicians into roles to which they can relate. When candidates have the opportunity to demonstrate how they handle situations in which ordinary Americans can see themselves, they should take it. It's a way of communicating leadership in a visceral, instantly comprehensible way.”
Posted by: shep
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June 28, 2007 03:26 PM
shep:
Not sure where you got the idea that I wanted Edwards (or any Dem) to "sit there smiling like an idiot and let your 'surrogates' reply..."
If you know anything about me, you know I want our guy to throw punches and knock the other guy down. Didn't you read the post these comments are attached to??
No ifs, ands, or buts.
Ask Mark: If anything I've been saying all along that Edwards hasn't gone far enough.
Posted by: Ara Rubyan
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June 28, 2007 03:37 PM
Sorry, Ara. After Mark's comment, the "[h]owever you do it, the candidate stays above the fray, out of the mud," smacked of the maddening Dem consultant "fight by not fighting" zen bullshit.
Democrats don't exactly need to "get in the mud," because they have the truth and the moral high ground on policy. They don't have to do Coultereque hate speech or even Swiftvet-style personal smears. But they sure as sh*t need to get instantly and observably mad in response to it. That's what real, feeling, unafraid people do.
And they could show a lot more passion, even anger, with what Republicans have done to government and society. That is, if they want anyone to take them seriously and differentiate a brand that the "fence-sitters" want to buy.
Posted by: shep
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June 28, 2007 05:12 PM
If I come off sounding like I don't want a fight, well, I can see your point. Mostly I think we're disagreeing over tactics, not strategery. There's room for smashmouth AND slipping a knife between their ribs. IJS.
Posted by: Ara Rubyan
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June 28, 2007 09:57 PM
On a related topic, I saw this today at Firedoglake from Swopa:
In the poll I did at dKos, I purposely put Emanuel's name on the list of Dems to see how many readers would pick him as an example of straight talk. Not many did. Too bad; I suspect people just voted for the guy they liked before they saw the poll or read my post -- Obama and Edwards were the top candidates and Howard Dean came in #1.But I think more Dems should listen to Emanuel. You might disagree with his politics but he knows how to punch.
Posted by: Ara Rubyan
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June 28, 2007 10:31 PM
"But I think more Dems should listen to Emanuel. You might disagree with his politics but he knows how to punch."
Agreed. Rahm is an excellent rhetorical street fighter. I think that his problem (like Hillary's) comes down to a question of political calculation. By contrast, #1 Dean comes off as completely sincere and unscripted.
Again, we come down to the issue of Democrats expressing how they really feel. John Kerry got a very good blog named after his "crooks and liars," "off-mike" gaffe. Just imagine...
Posted by: shep
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June 28, 2007 11:13 PM
Keep your eye on Emanuel. He'll be Speaker some day and his story will have plenty of dark and stormy nights.
Posted by: Ara Rubyan
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June 29, 2007 06:02 AM