Polls: Why Rasmussen Should Get A Prize

...and calling 12 out of 13 gubernatorial races:

Honorable Mention: Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball

Seems like a lot of pollsters got the Minnesota governor's race wrong.
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...and calling 12 out of 13 gubernatorial races:

Honorable Mention: Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball

Seems like a lot of pollsters got the Minnesota governor's race wrong.
Mark Adams:
Check out the debunking of Rove/FOX's claim that polls (like reality) have ...
(Polls: Why Rasmussen Should Get A Prize)
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Check out the debunking of Rove/FOX's claim that polls (like reality) have a democratic bias of 6 to 8 points.
From Greenwald on the Senate:
MD 5% (against Dem.)
MI 0%
MO 1% (against Dem.)
MT 1% (for Dem.)
NJ 3% (against Dem.)
OH 1% (against Dem.)
PA 5% (against Dem.)
RI 2% (for Dem.)
TN 1% (against Dem.)
VA 0%
WA 7% (against Dem.)
Add a 2 point bias in favor of Lieberman against the real Dem, and that's only 2 races showing a pro-Dem prediction error of a total of 3 points (1% and 2% respectively) all the rest were either skewed (usually slightly) in favor of GOP or it was dead on, for a total GOP bias of 23 points. That's a net 20 point GOP advantage for an average of about 2% GOP bias per race (excluding CT).
But just try telling Brit Hume that. FOX=science is for suckers.
Posted by: Mark Adams
|
November 10, 2006 08:48 AM
But reality has a well-known liberal bias, so that makes up for it.
Posted by: Ara Rubyan
|
November 10, 2006 12:44 PM