Stirling On Strickland, and the Progressive-Moderate Fusion
by Mark Adams
The ubiquitous Stirling Newberry is usually a go-to guy for the facts and figures needed to debunk the Right-wing noise machine's economic propaganda. However, his TMP Cafe post describes the political war in Ohio as the "beachhead" that may seal the GOP out of the White House for decades if (and only if) the anti-triagulation strategy of fusing the moderates with progressives pushed by (soon to be) Governor Strickland plays out.
Per his expertise, Newberry keys into the Ohio "independent" voter's perception of the economy. And he accurately describes at least two, if not more, different independent, moderate voters.
Moderates are realists, make up their own mind, enjoy tax cuts and respect integrity. Or, they have no problem with big government as long as they get a piece of the action, and respect integrity Or, are leery of ideological dogma, and respect independence -- which means their representatives better have enough integrity to stand up to the extreme wings of either party.
Moderate Republicans came into play when tax cuts were misrepresented and didn't impact their personal finances the way the gimicksters in Washington advertised, and the GOP showed their universal lack of integrity by not standing up to Bush for his fiasco in Iraq -- "but instead were cheerleaders for failure."
The underlying dynamic is that Republicans haven't really delivered on tax cuts. These people are paying the same in taxes as before, and their wages have stopped going up. Burdened by housing costs and property taxes, they are capable of looking at the total tax burden.
[snip]
Iraq, then, for the moderates, now looks like pure calculation, a blunder. A Bad Decision. Good deciders don't cover up Bad Decisions, they deal with them.
The Foley scandal strikes at the heart of this analysis even though Newberry doesn't go there. It's not the sex, or even the cover-up. It's the sheer lack of any pretense of integrity.
For a State exhausted by Republican crimes and scandals; who boast not one, but two convicted criminals still representing them -- arrogantly refusing the honorable route of resignation (see: Bobs, Taft and Ney) -- it's not just Ohio's Democratic moderates who are eager for a change, but Republican moderates are ripe for the picking.
Running to the center, however, ala DNC Clintonianism, is not the winning strategy according to Newberry, not to mention MarKOS or Jerome at MyDD, who preach their own progressive message of rejecting the tired consultant centrist approach to taking the country back (but for different reasons).
Integrity does not mean your base, the progressive/liberals in the case of the Democrats, must stifle itself for the greater good as the party elders court the middle. When that happens, the middle can smell a rat and the wing gets rambunctious. Over the last decade or two, the GOP has openly pandered to their base, and delivered only crumbs.
The Democratic Party, on the other hand, boasts a much more diverse and dynamic base, none of whom are permitted to take the lead lest they scare the "normal" folks (whoever they are). In trying to be all things to everybody, they end up delivering little that is cohesive and please nobody entirely. For them to completely turn their back on all these interests in a quest to be GOP-Lite is transparently disingenuous -- unless your nickname is "Bubba."
What Newberry has identified in his piece is a new kind of honesty embodied by Gubernatorial candidate Elliot Spitzer (D-NY) as well as Ohio's own Ted Strickland. Even Arnold Schwarzenhagger benefits by tapping into California's quirky "progressive Republicans." They don't lie to their base, but brace them for disappointment while championing their core concerns -- promising only progress towards the goal, not utopia.
Meanwhile, those glued to the 700 Club are still anticipating their theocracy, and the rest of the right who believe that FOX really is "fair and balanced," and god really does loan out his talent to Limbaugh every afternoon, reaffirm their distaste for the "liberal" media which insists on painting such a gloomy picture of the war when VP Cheney assures them that things are going "remarkably well."
The dogmatic and the duped are easier to corral than the multitude of liberal leaning groups if only as a function of streamlining the message for fewer interests. It's also easier to ignore them while pretending to care without getting caught.
Ironically, the most reassuring thing the White House staff has done to reach out to moderates is to be outed for identifying their base as "nuts."
More Stirling: This is why Spitzer and Strickland are different. They are often going to cross their progressive base, they admit it, and embrace it, because they both present it as being part and parcel of what makes them effective and able - the ability to target problems and get to the root of them. At the same time, they tap the progressive desire to improve the quality of life for people, by proposing and underlining improving the economy, and opening the golden road of education. Tough, but caring and fair. These traits are catnip to the moderate, and are far more reliable that splitting the difference, or even than spitting on one's own party.

Comments
Interesting. The Washington Post picked Kansas to make the same point and especially how many Democratic moderates used to be Republican moderates.
Posted by: shep
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October 19, 2006 12:59 PM
I'm sensing a trend.
Posted by: Mark Adams
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October 19, 2006 04:19 PM