E Pluribus Unum

And if he does, isn't he better off not having enough votes to defeat a cloture motion?

What's the upside of filibustering and forcing a vote on cloture? For one thing, he forces moderate Republican Lincoln Chaffee to vote one way or the other. If Chaffee, locked in a close battle for re-election, votes FOR cloture, Reid figures he'll alienate Democrats he needs back home to win the general election. If he votes AGAINST cloture, Reid figures he'll alienate Republicans he needs back home to win a potential primary. Either way, Reid might pick up a seat for the Democrats.

Is there a downside to Reid and Senate Dems in doing this? Not that I can see. Reid even has a built-in safety net -- a way to smack Chaffee and not have Frist drop the nuclear bomb on the Senate. Reid simply releases the Democrats in the Gang of 14 to vote for cloture.

Upside -- Chaffee, out. Downside -- none that I can see.

But wouldn't it better filibuster Alito and actually succeed in keeping him off the SCOTUS? Well...yes and no.

Reid has got to figure that Frist will drop the bomb on the filibuster, ending them for all time. Not a good thing. Especially if the Senate stays Republican after the '06 election. Or if one of the Justices dies before then. Or if Bush puts up another extremist in Alito's place.

Imagine Bush nominating, say, Karl Rove, or his pickup truck (or nominating Karl Rove's pickup truck) for a seat on the SCOTUS? Without the possibility of a Democratic filibuster, this is not a pretty picture -- there'd be NO WAY to stop Bush from going buck-wild.

No.

The downside to a successful Alito filibuster is pretty steep.

Unless....

...Reid is willing to try to use it as a campaign issue such that the Dems actually capture the Senate (and the White House too, in 2008). But there's a lot of if's in that scenario. And even though Reid is from Nevada, I don't think he's THAT much of a gambler.

So here it is:

For Reid and the Senate Dems, actually HAVING enough votes to sustain a filibuster is a much tougher decision than NOT HAVING enough votes.

(HT to Leon H)