Obama and the White Working Class Voter
I've been reading up on the voting patterns of the (male) white working class voter -- which by definition makes me an anthropologist if not an elitist.
These segment of the electorate is widely believed to be the so-called "Democratic base." And there is some truth to it: while Dems have lost white voters and male voters in recent decades, turns out that there is evidence that Dems have occasionally "got" the vote of white working class voters by a narrow margin. Not that there are that many of them left: union membership (the metric for "working class" that I use) is at an all time low; as is the percentage of the population that is white. And all of those numbers, already small, continue to get smaller.
So when Obama's Axelrod says (paraphrasing) "we can win without them," it should be considered another gaffe, i.e., he accidently told the truth.
Obama's problem is that, as the numbers grow smaller, the cultural blowback looms larger given that most of the traditional media's barking heads (translation: rich old white guys) fancy themselves "of the people," i.e., working class. Look at Russert, look at O'Reilly, look at Dobbs, look at Matthews, look at Fineman, et. al.
Balancing against this negative outlook is the possibility that Obama, always a quick study, will find a way to crystallize the narrative of this group of voters. He stumbled --and got punished badly-- when "bittergate" erupted, but he (alone of all the candidates) has the potential to capitalize on "getting it right." McCain hasn't done it -- he doesn't have the chops to be Rove's ventriloquist dummy -- not like Bush anyway. And Hillary? She's already GOT this segment of voters (at least in PA and OH) and she's STILL losing -- because she cannot "close the deal" with so many OTHER segments of the electorate.
Bottom line: Axelrod is right -- Dems will not win white voters, will not win male voters, may not win white working class voters, especially if race continues to be a hot-button issues, which I think it will. But if Obama can at least make some inroads and narrow the gap, he will be in decent shape. I think he can do it. But Hillary isn't helping.
Dansac has an excellent diary at GOS that I found after I wrote this. Read it; it makes an excellent corollary to what I'm trying to say here.
Pay special attention to points #4-#6.
I'd say, first of all, there's a generational aspect to this. Obama may not win working class older white voters (and you know why) but may still win their kids. Anyway, as we've discussed, they are literally a dying breed.
Shocking as this may be, I think Chris Matthews may have it right (though I said it months ago) Obama would help himself with a more populist message. Obviously, regardless of all the craptastic atmospherics about it, white working class men are about as bitter as anyone this side of young, urban blacks, but with only booze to escape with.
He might even make a valuable point about corporatism and a certain segment of the ubber wealthy and take a bite out of the "elitist" charge at the same time. He can leave the xenophobia and racism to Dobbs and Limbaugh and replace it with a little targeted class warfare. I think struggling angry white guys are about ready for it and it's about time someone told them who their real enemies are.
Obama's core message is "one America." So whatever he says and does, it should be focused on that.
There's nothing wrong with being a uniter vs. being a divider (although by making the point, you're being a divider of sorts). Nothing wrong with it -- as long as you're genuine and work to find common ground instead of going for 50%+1 and pulling up the drawbridge. That was one of the first big mistakes Bush made after being elected: ditching the majority of people who didn't vote for him and governing as though they had.
If I were Obama, I'd talk about those who want to divide us and why they want that. He already does that when he talks about the "experienced" Washington hands who think he needs more "seasoning" and how they want to "boil all the hope out of [him]." People get that. They want something new, they want to turn the page.
He needs to go back to his core message. He's fighting a two-front war, but not really: McCain and Clinton are really on the same ticket.
If I were Obama, I'd talk about those who want to divide us and why they want that."
We're talking about the same people.