The single most important fact about the 2008 Presidential election cycle--so far

Regardless of who the Republicans pick, their base is just not energized to vote in nearly the numbers that the Democrats are. The WSJ calls this "the intensity gap" and it may be the single most important fact about the 2008 Presidential election.

Of course, that could change if Hillary gets the nomination. But even then, history doesn't show us any instances where a candidate won because he was able to get people to vote against his opponent. In other words, "NOT-HILLARY" isn't a ballot choice. You either vote for your guy, the other guy, or you stay home.

If it was any different, then we'd be discussing the re-election of President Kerry right about now.