The Clintons know that race excites the base
OK, indulge me for a moment while I quote myself:
Well, we know Bill won't do it; so how about Teddy instead? This, after Obama trounces Clinton in South Carolina and Caroline Kennedy hands down her endorsement.
So my son (who's supporting Hillary) asks me: "At this point, what can Obama do to win this?"I said, "Get Bill to campaign for him."
And for lagniappe, on Monday after Bush delivers his SOTU, Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D-KS) will deliver the Democratic response -- and then, the next day, will announce her endorsement of Obama.
And then there's the (mischief-making?) rumor that Obama has promised Edwards the AG position in an Obama administration if Edwards endorses Barack now, not later.
Talk about momentum. Is it enough to put Obama in the lead? I have my doubts -- and I'm speaking as an Obama-Firster.
The reason is that the Clintons know how to move their constituency and playing the race card is one of their primary tactics -- but in a different way than a Republican might play it.
Hear me out:
When the Republican nominee plays the race card (and he will), it will be to generate fear, uncertainty and doubt about the future of the white majority. The Clintons can play the race card to generate fear as well. But the fear will be of a different kind: it will be the fear that "the black candidate" can't win the White House.
Whatever it is, fear moves voters.
Does it mean that the Clintons are racist? Of course not. Does it mean that the Clinton's base is racist? Nope. Does it mean that the Clintons know how to move their base? Oh, most definitely so. They are masters of the universe when it comes to that.
Fact is, the Clintons said precious little about Obama's race -- other than to call attention to it. It was the one thing that Obama did not want to talk about it, and the Clintons talked about it. Clumsily. Inartfully. Even offensively, although it was their proxies -- black and white -- who said the most vile stuff.
And the residue that was left over? Obama is now the "black candidate." Obama can only win in the "black states." Obama won't be president of ALL the United States. And, this weekend, Bill Clinton says Barack Obama is the new Jesse Jackson. Talk about fainting from damned praise.
I'll be blunt: this is far more benign that what the Republicans will roll out against Obama in the fall, should he get the nomination. And if Obama cannot turn it aside now, how's he going to handle it later?
As a voter who wants Obama to be the 44th POTUS, I worry about that.
========================
Regardless of which Democrat wins the nomination, the Republicans will play the race card. It's what they do.
Atwater: You start out in 1954 by saying, 'N----r, n----r, n----r.' By 1968 you can't say 'nigger' - that hurts you. Backfires. So you say stuff like forced busing, states' rights and all that stuff. You're getting so abstract now [that] you're talking about cutting taxes, and all these things you're talking about are totally economic things and a byproduct of them is [that] blacks get hurt worse than whites.And subconsciously maybe that is part of it. I'm not saying that. But I'm saying that if it is getting that abstract, and that coded, that we are doing away with the racial problem one way or the other. You follow me - because obviously sitting around saying, 'We want to cut this,' is much more abstract than even the busing thing, and a hell of a lot more abstract than 'N----r, n----r.'
...and if you're wondering how the Republicans will play the race card on Hillary, start by googling "Charlie Rangel." Then "Harlem office of Bill Clinton." Or just "Harlem." That word alone lands an emotional punch on the Republican body politic. Combined with stories about Bill's wandering eye, the Republicans will go for broke if Hillary gets the nomination.
It's what they do.
OK, this is a shitty post in this respect. If Clinton wins the nomination you and hundreds of other pundits will likely jump up and down and say it's because she and her team played on race. I'm supporting Edwards this time around but if he doesn't win big on Feb. 5, and therefore drops out, I can't support Obama. I think he has people who will help him out, but In don't think he has the wide base of political knowledge to get through. I think people will feel good until they realize nothing is happening or getting done.
The irrational stupidity of those who don't like Clinton - from the left and the right - has pushed me more toward her camp as I realize her very well-thought out and practical solutions are not being discussed,
Temple
@ www.polstate.com (where you're a blogroll link)
Let's start from the top.
Race is the 800 pound gorilla in the room. Does that mean that if you (or any particular individual) don't like Obama you're a racist? No, not at all. What I AM saying is that the subject of race does stimulate an emotional response in people who follow politics. That's just a proven scientific fact; read clinical psychologist Edward Westen's book, The Political Brain: The Role of Emotion in Deciding the Fate of the Nation. He devotes at least one chapter to the topic of race. His larger point is that emotion is what moves people to vote, not intellect. This dispassionate campaign that Democrats typically run is a loser.
Let me be blunt: the Clinton's are not racist. But they do understand how to use emotion to move their constituency. They've been quite successful in casting Obama as "the black candidate." i.e.,
C'mon, man: it's a no-brainer. 75% of white voters didn't vote for him in SC. Are they racist? I doubt it. But the fact remains: he was their third choice. That's pretty tepid. The Clintons are simply (and skillfully and tactfully) sending that message. According to the Clinton campaign, Obama is a candidate with a very narrow constituency, a regional constituency, that cannot possibly hope to deliver enough (white) votes to win in November.
Now, if Hillary does get the nomination, I have no doubt whatsoever that she (and Bill) will do whatever is necessary to win the election. If her opponent is John McCain, he won't know what hit him; this nonsense about McCain and Hillary being "very close" and running a "very civil campaign" is just rhetoric that is softening him up for the kill. I expect they'll give us the "Shorter John McCain: Less Jobs, More War." Advantage Hillary.
And if Hillary wins the general, I have no doubt that she'll be the best thing that happened to this country since...well, the last Clinton administration.
The one thing I know for sure: the Clintons will do what it takes to win. And/But if you're their opponent, you better watch out.
I like that.
P.S. What happens next for Edwards supporters if he's dropping out?
"75% of white voters didn't vote for him in SC. Are they racist? I doubt it."
I guess it depends on what you mean by "racist".
Regardless, the "he hasn't the wide base of political knowledge to get through," argument is either 1) silly or 2) a canard. Any black man who can win the Iowa Caucus against two formidable (white) politicians and get the "standard bearer" endorsement of the Kennedy family has proven himself a capable politician. Second, presidents don't write policy, they choose policies written by others and make critical decisions on the fly as events unfold. There is nothing to show that Obama is weaker than either Edwards or Clinton in those skills. Quite the contrary.
I guess it depends on what you mean by "racist".
Well, let's give them the benefit of the doubt. I was using the word in the classic sense (i.e., one believes themselves superior to another simply because of the color of their skin).
That said, I have no doubt that race was part of their decision to put him third out of three candidates. Ask yourself: if no one knew the gender or race (or full name) of any of the three, would the results have been the same? We'll never know for sure, but I kind of doubt it.
"Well, let's give them the benefit of the doubt.
I'd really like to. But no southern state has earned it. Quite the contrary.
Yes. Well.
That goes to my original point, which is that race has been a central theme in any national political campaign for the last 60 years. And regardless of who wins the Democratic nomination, the Republicans will play the race card against them because that's how they win.