Here's how Hillary may lose

Any of these might be considered a good reason why she may not win; but they aren't the real reason.

In the primaries...

• It's not just about her vote on the Iraq war.
  Honestly? You can't really count on how much of an issue Iraq will be a year from now.

• It's not that she's "un-electable."
  After all, a lot depends on your opponent. Besides, we picked the electable guy the last time; how's that working out for us?
• It's not that she's too much of a corporatist.
  ...or too conservative or too much like Bush yadda yadda yadda. She has always treated her campaign as a general election campaign which means she believes there's no real upside to being specific about her platform. Winners rarely are.

In the general election campaign...

• It's not that she's "too divisive."
  That kind of talk blames the victim for the crime.
• It's not she's part of some dynastic cult.
  We wouldn't be having this conversation if the Supreme Court hadn't stuck its nose where it didn't belong.
• It's not that she's a woman.
  Of course men won't vote for her -- but they don't vote for any Democrat.


• It's not that she's over-stating her experience.
  I hear that high-powered women executives turn their nose up at her, because they think she is a corner-cutting, self-aggrandizing opportunist, trading on her husband's reputation. Frankly, if her name was Hillary Smith I believe she'd still be a very credible candidate simply based on her Senate career to date.

No, it's none of that. To understand why Hillary may lose, let's look at the recent past:

• Shorter Bill Clinton (c. 1992): "Don't stop thinking about tomorrow."


• Shorter Bill Clinton (c. 1996): "The bridge to the 21st century."


• Shorter Hillary Clinton (c. 2008): "Party like it's 1993!"

That is why she may, in the end, lose the nomination -- and, if the nominee, perhaps the election itself.

What do you think?