Iraq Not An Issue in '08?

[cross posted, with poll, at Daily Kos]

So suggests Newsweek's Fareed Zakaria. Skeptical? Hear him out:

First off, he debunks the observation that everything is on a glide path to a soft landing.

Zakaria:

This is a nation where 4.5 million people have fled their homes, ethnic cleansing has transformed whole cities and religious fanatics have imposed a theocratic rule that is often more extreme than in Iran.

In much of the country, thugs rule the streets. The police chief of Basra told the Iraqi newspaper Al-Sabah last week, "Most of Basra's ports, especially Umm Qasr, are under the control of militia gangs. The police force is incapable of executing its duties because its members report to the militias."

The central government is barely functioning. Half of the cabinet ministries are either vacant or nonfunctional.

Iraq's oil production is down this year. Sectarian divisions are, in some ways, getting worse.

No purple fingers here, folks.

On the ground, far from Bush's rhetoric of transformation, these conditions have moved American policy toward realism.

So if you thought "victory" was going to be a democratic Iraq friendly to US interests, then we lost the war.

That said, it hasn't stopped Petraeus, according to Zakaria, from seizing an opportunity to take credit for himself and his clients:

Petraeus has been willing to do what no American official has until now: accept Iraq for what it is and not what Washington wants it to be. Searching for a stable order, Petraeus has allied himself with whoever, within reason, could produce that order.

If I could, I would have added air-quotes to the words "stable order."

Petraeus has, in effect, given up hopes of Shiite leaders in Baghdad reconciling with Sunnis, and instead he's made up with them himself. The result has been that Al Qaeda in Iraq has been marginalized, Sunni leaders no longer demand an American withdrawal and the Shiites have recognized that America's support is not unconditional.

Hey, if it means fewer dead Americans, good on him. Declare victory, for all I care -- just come home, godammit.

In the Shiite south, U.S. policy has abandoned the goal of an impartial government and has picked a side: Abdul Aziz al-Hakim's Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI), which holds sway over most local governments in the region.

I have a feeling we'll regret this someday, but ... whatever.

Petraeus has even been somewhat accommodating of the Sadrists. In Baghdad, U.S. forces now primarily target "rogue" Mahdi Army militants. The more maintsream Sadrists have been tacitly allowed to operate in several Shiite areas.

"Let Freedom Reign?" Nuh-uh. This is us pointing a gun at everyone as we slowly back out of the room.

Bottom line: Hundreds of billions flushed down a hole, tens of thousands dead and wounded -- and the same people who got us into it are still in power...ready to do it again in Iran.

As for Iraq being an issue in the fall of '08, Zakaria suggests that you not bet on it:

In the new NEWSWEEK Poll, the economy now tops Iraq as the issue that voters say will most influence their choice for president, 22 percent to 19 percent. For two years, Iraq dominated these kinds of surveys. Only a month ago, in a CBS News poll, 28 percent of respondents wanted Iraq to be the campaign's most-discussed issue, while the economy came in second at 16 percent. One can't make too much of one poll, but other evidence also suggests that the gap seems to be closing.

It's the economy, stupid!

P.S. Of course, he doesn't mention the fallout if the US is at war with Iran 6 months from now. If that happens it is not going to be good for the Dems -- or anyone else for that matter.

You know it's coming. Will we be ready -- whoever we nominate?