Here's What Happens Next For Google/YouTube
[I posted the following piece earlier today as a comment on a blog devoted to marketing and advertising. As we have discussed this topic on a number of occasions, I am taking the liberty of posting it here.]
Regarding the wisdom of the Google/YouTube deal...
Google will cut a few verrrrrrrrrry large deals with folks like Time-Warner that will solve the copyright issue post-haste. In fact, it's already begun:
[Time Warner CEO Dick Parsons] told the Guardian: "You can assume we're in negotiations with YouTube and that those negotiations will be kicked up to the Google level in the hope that we can get to some acceptable position."Translation: Where's my cut?
Got it? Here's how it'll shake out:
Because of media consolidation, 95% of the known copyrights are owned by 5% of the corporations. That means Google has a relatively small universe of players to cut deals with. As a result, most of that deal-making work can be done rather quickly...
... and relatively cheaply, I might add, given the oceans of cash that will be generated by the traffic that Google has just bought.
There will be MORE than enough money to satisfy everybody -- all of the CEOs, studio heads, and corporate lawyers will get paid 100 times over.
Sadly, only the artists themselves will be untouched by the money, but that's the way it's always been.
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One more thought:
IMHO, Viacom (for example), et. al, were always going to have a rather weak case to make vis-a-vis copyright infringement.
How so? Because damages to Viacom were going to be even harder to show than in the case of Napster, Grokster, et. al.
Here's why:
When you download a song from some P2P network, you are doing two things: you are essentially getting a high-quality duplicate copy of the original AND you are NOT buying the equivalent content from Viacom.
But on YouTube, what are you doing? You are most certainly NOT getting a high-quality copy, nor are you taking any sales revenue from Viacom.
If anything, YouTube has STIMULATED the demand for conventional content as owned by Viacom.
Case in point: Stephen Colbert...
He has become a cultural icon AND a cash cow for Comedy Central, all because there are bazillions of people have seen him... on YouTube. Colbert certainly understands this and has played it to the hilt. Did you see the show the other night when he announced the winner of his "Green Screen Challenge?" Guess who showed up -- Mr. Copyright himself: George Lucas. If the writing on the wall wasn't clear up til then, it certainly is now.
I guess the only people who have LOST ground are the politicians who embarrassed themselves by getting caught on video calling someone "macaca." YouTube made them infamous and may have hastened the end of their careers. Way to go YouTube! We should give those two young guys the Presidential Medal of Freedom.
Well, anyway, that's just my opinion. I might be wrong.
But I doubt it.
P.S. Where's your God now, Mark Cuban?
P.P.S. If you've read down this far, here's a bonus: The Very First YouTube Video --
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