What happens next if Israel can't win militarily?
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Insightful piece from Gareth Evans and Robert Malley in Slate:
A serious effort to safeguard Israel's security without jeopardizing regional or Lebanese stability is possible, but only if the United States is prepared to engage in vigorous, continuous, and comprehensive diplomacy.I think that's fair and realistic.Immediately after a cease-fire has been secured, the United States and its European and Arab partners should focus on ending the conditions that produced this deadly conflagration -- the real root causes. This would include intensifying the intra-Lebanese dialogue concerning Hezbollah, as well as the country's political system and national defense; addressing pending Israeli-Lebanese issues; engaging Syria and Iran in a broad discussion of regional matters; and reinvigorating the long-dormant Arab-Israeli peace process.
I'm not sure that diplomacy is possible at this point, Ara. I think that Hezbollah wants a dogfight.
War is diplomacy by other means.
And you'll see a push for diplomacy when one side gains a clear advantage over the other.
Oh, absolutely. Thing is that both sides need to agree that they want a non-military solution. It seems fairly obvious that Hezbollah has been preparing for this fight for some time, and would like to engage ground forces. If they hold their own, the gain much prestige (and the resulting funding and recruits, etc). At the same time, I think Israel loses much if they have to pull back or settle with Hezbollah remaining this strong.
I dodn't see any stop for a while yet.
"It seems fairly obvious that Hezbollah has been preparing for this fight for some time, and would like to engage ground forces."
Israel too. But, not so much.