A different kind of poll shows the same result: Republicans in trouble

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Joe Conason:

Many polls showing a generic preference for Democrats have appeared over the past several months, and many such polls have been dismissed by Republicans who say that national polling in a contest of 435 districts has little salience.

But the NPR poll is different because, unlike most measures of midterm attitudes, this survey was conducted only in the 50 most hotly contested congressional districts.

[...]

Fewer than three in 10 of the voters in these competitive districts say they are likely to vote for the incumbent. Nearly half say they are likely to vote for "someone else." (Twelve of the 50 seats are open, meaning that there is no incumbent, so that question was asked only in the other 38, of which 30 are held by Republicans.) Nearly half, or 48 percent, say they are likely to vote for the Democrat, while 41 percent say they will probably vote for the Republican.

That preference was more than generic -- asked the same question with the names of the districts' candidates, those preferences varied by only 1 percent.

This was a smart survey -- one of the very, very few national surveys that goes into individual Congressional districts to get its results.

Of course, like any poll, it is a snapshot of where we are today. That said, if I were a Republican, I'd be kind of queasy right now.

Or entering the witness protection program:

Most notable among them perhaps is Rep. Tom Reynolds of New York, chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee -- the man whose job it is to defend the House majority. Reynolds has also put up a campaign Web site that doesn't mention his party.