Nation splits 4 ways on illegals
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Interesting polling analysis on the politics of immigration reform:
A USA TODAY breakdown of public opinion, based on Gallup polls taken in April and May, finds Americans falling into four clusters that are roughly equal in size but vary dramatically in point of view. The groups can be characterized as "hard-liners," "unconcerned," "ambivalent" and "welcoming."
A couple of red flags:
- Partisanship doesn't rule on this issue. Republicans are particularly divided: 23 Senate Republicans voted for the immigration bill, 32 voted against it.
- Those [poll respondents] who want to take the toughest steps against illegal immigration also feel the most urgency about the subject.
- The "hard-liners" are also the most Republican group -- one reason many House Republicans, especially those considered at risk in November's elections, may be reluctant to compromise.
I also saw this snippet from John Fund, about a crucial primary:
[T]he June 27 Utah primary between five-term incumbent Rep. Chris Cannon, who is Bush's "strongest ally" in the GOP on immigration, and political newcomer John Jacob, an immigration hardliner who some say looks likely to defeat Cannon."Illegal immigration is the key issue in the race, and should [Cannon lose], look for House Republicans to dig in their heels and block any bill that creates a path to citizenship for illegal aliens.
[Fund says] 'House Republicans are already spooked about immigration, and should one of our own lose on the issue, you will see panic break out,' one GOP congressman told me."
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