Everyone is setting the expectations for tonight's results but the Clinton camp has re-set them in a way that is a wonderment to watch. But that just the way the game is played, so good for them.
Chuck Todd, MSNBC, probably has as good an analysis as anyone:- Obama could net more delegates out of Vermont than Clinton does out of Ohio.
Clinton can win both Ohio and Texas, 52%-48%, and lose the overall delegate battle tonight, thanks to how both Texas and Ohio award more delegates in African-American heavy areas as well as those crazy Texas caucuses.
Speaking of Texas, Obama likely has a five-point cushion on the delegate front, meaning he could lose the state by five points and still net delegates.
How will the media handle Clinton winning two states but Obama winning the most delegates tonight? Who wins the night? [Hint: See below.]
Bonus question: Who do we reward the state of Texas to if Clinton wins the popular vote in the primary but Obama nets the most delegates?
And finally, for all the talk of bias against Clinton's campaign in the media, does anyone believe any other candidate could have lost 11-straight contests, be this far behind in delegates, and be simply two victories away from being back in the game? One thing the media has done is they've given Clinton every chance she wants to write her own comeback story. She gets another shot today.Presuming that Clinton wins one or more of the contests, the story will be that she ended Obama's winning streak.
But, as we know, it's all about the pledged delegates, not how many states you win. And currently, MSNBC counts a gap of 157 delegates between the two candidates (not counting supers).
Obama - 1194 (53.5%)
Clinton - 1037 (46.5%)
To claim victory, Clinton has to have narrowed the gap either in absolute numbers or in percentages of the total. Anything less is a defeat. Period.
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