Primary Winners and Losers: How It Will Happen
(Cross posted at Daily Kos, with poll)
"Those who live by the crystal ball eat broken glass."
---- Michael Swanson, Wells Fargo Bank economist, 2004.
I'm not much of one to make predictions, but I do like looking at every possible angle. So with that in mind, I thought I'd collect a couple of the better pieces of electoral analysis for you today. They're pretty brief, but they take a look at the field the same way I might.
For the Democrats:
You don't need me to tell you that Iowa is close. It could be taken by any of the top tier Dems. Blitz boy, in an excellent diary that I'm summarizing here, has the Democratic race looking like this:
- IF Edwards wins Iowa AND IF Clinton comes in second, Obama is wounded. Clinton probably takes NH, MI and NV. Super Tuesday spells the end of the race: Clinton wins.
- IF Edwards wins Iowa, AND IF Hillary comes in third, then NH is a three-way race.
Here's where it gets complicated:
- IF Hillary then wins in NH, THEN she's the nominee.
- However, IF Edwards is the NH winner AND IF Clinton is second, THEN Obama is toast. Clinton probably wins NV, SC and the nomination.
- Lastly, IF Obama wins in NH AND IF Clinton is second, THEN she will still win MI and recover in NV. She's looking good on Super Tuesday.
- Regardless, IF Clinton is third in NH, THEN she's toast and the race is between Edwards and Obama. Advantage: Obama.
- IF Obama wins Iowa AND NH, THEN he wins the nomination.
- IF Clinton wins Iowa, THEN it's over. She wins the nomination.
On the Republican side, Pat Buchanan has it this way:
- First off, IF Romney wins Iowa, THEN he'll win NH and MI and will probably be the nominee.
- However, IF Huckabee wins Iowa AND IF McCain's recent progress in NH is for real and he wins there, THEN Romney is on life-support. At that point, McCain has a real chance at the nomination by becoming the anti-Huckabee, especially if Thompson drops out and endorses him before SC. However, IF Huckabee wins SC, THEN Huckabee has the inside track.
- In fact, IF Huck wins Iowa AND IF Romney wins NH, THEN its curtains for everyone else and it will be a two man sprint to the finish: Mitt vs. Huck.
- Giuliani is close to toast. He'll lose Iowa and NH, then MI and SC. Even now, his firewall in Florida is crumbling. By Super Tuesday, IF he is 0-5, THEN it's over for him.
- Same for Thompson. He might have a good showing in Iowa (IF Romney and Huckabee rip each other apart), but he probably won't win there. He will also not win NH (where he is polling behind Ron Paul). Nor will he win in MI. After all that, he may not even make it to SC (where he is polling #3 behind Romney and Huckabee), let alone win it. In fact, IF he flops in Iowa, THEN he'll drop out and endorse McCain (see above).
So, two weeks out from Iowa, here are the odds, according to Pat Buchanan:
- Giuliani: 20-1
- Thompson: 20-1
- McCain: 6-1
- Romney: 3-2
- Huckabee: ?? Buchanan isn't taking bets on Huck, although he does see him likely finishing in the top two.
I think I'm on record as not having a clue but, if I had to pick, I'd go Romney vs. Clinton since that is obviously the unspoken choice of The Village Elders. But these are interesting times. Perhaps the people will ignore Village Press manipulations, distortions and framing and elect someone of their own choosing.
OTOH, even if they did, their choice could still be stolen from them as it was in 2000.
Hillary wins MI under any scenario -- since Edwards, Obama, Richardson and Biden bowed out -- which also means the michigan Dem primary is meaningless. I also think that after Edwards wins Iowa (a must) if he can come in 2nd in NH only slightly behind, within 2 points, he can still go on. But then he MUST S.C. and come within a point or two in NV or might as well pack it in.
If it's down to two by Feb 5, it depends on who's out and who can split the spoils. If Edwards is out, California is up for grabs -- along with their SEIU 527. Illinois SEIU chapter backs Obama and NY's backs Hillary. These are the three biggest States SuperDuper Tuesday. The cash and boots on the ground this immense union provides cannot be underestimated.
The National SEIU board and a majority of the members wanted to endorse Edwards, but Illinois and NY balked and they couldn't get the required 60% needed to make an official endorsement, leaving it up to the State Chapters. Calif, and NV are backing Edwards as is Iowa's which is running those three-quarter Million bucks in ads this week under the State SEIU's 527 that Obama is crying about and Edwards disavows but I love.
If Hillary's gone before Feb 5, the winner of NY get's the nomination Likewise the winner of Illinois wins it all if Obama can't get the train running through that date.
IF I don't wake up from my dream, and Edwards wins California (he's polling there the same as in the national polls, way back in 3rd) Then in a 3-way race where Hillary wins the red States, Edwards the South and Obama the rest of the blue states that go on that day, it all comes down to New Jersey's 127 delegates.
SuperDuper Tuesday, I see Hillary winning AK, AZ, AR, ID, KS, NJ, NY, ND, OK, UT - Ten States, 701 delegates. Obama winning CO, CN, DE, IL, MA, MN, NM and Delegates Abroad - Eight States 597 delegates. Edwards winning AL, CA, GA, MO, TN - Five States 777 delegates. Obama gives heart-felt consession speech, his ABC (anybody but Clinton) delegates pledge to Edwards. Edwards declared winner of nomination after Ohio votes in March.
Wake up Dorothy!!!
Explain to me how this is different than filling out your brackets for the Final Four in March? I love this stuff.