Pathetic Predictions
by Mark Adams X-posted @ KOS
Before he went full time into Loonyville, I occasionally saw a comment by Mark Noonan around the 'sphere. Sometimes I check him out just for sheer amusement and he seldom disappoints.
Yesterday there was this gem at his site, Blogs For Bush:
I'm telling ya, the MSM has gotten it wrong - the polling is bogus: the Democrats are heading for quite the crash on November 7th...and the leadership knows
Note he's not predicting that the GOP will retain an ever so slim margin of control over Congress, but the Democrats will "crash."
I can only assume this means that they will end up with a net loss instead of gaining seats. I'm also assuming that on November 8th, anything less than a veto-proof 2/3 majority by the Dems (an impossibility in the Senate with only a third of the body up for grabs) will be his "proof" that the Democrats are losers.
Now, on his strange little group blog called GOP Bloggers he decides to put his "reputation on the line" by making some comically ridiculous predictions. His reputation for being utterly insane was established years ago, but now his delusions and inability to accept anything resembling reality have caught up to him.
1. Santorum will win in Pennsylvania.
When you're that drunk on the Kool Aide, the hallucinations get pretty vivid. [Note to Noonan: Ricky is not a prophet, and the "Eye of Mordor" does not appear anywhere in Revelations forecasting the End Of Times.
In support of Ricky, Noonan offers this twisted rant:
If you think its been like pulling teeth to get bedrock conservatism through the Senate with a GOP majority, imagine how hard it would be with a Majority Leader Reid. [Indeed - ed.]
Seriously, this guy needs a padded room.
PA Santorum: 44% Casey: 52% Zogby/WSJ NEW 10/19[Yes, I'm linking to Powerline so the idiot might believe it -- ed.]
His prognostication continues:
2. Steele will in in Maryland.
Earth to Noonan, despite clinging to one poll calling the race a tossup, even National Review has given up on Maryland, citing a 9 point deficit reported by Rasmussen. Zogby is almost as bad:
MD Steele: 43% Cardin: 51% Zogby/WSJ NEW 10/19
But don't let facts stand in the way of your fantasy, Noonan.
This will be a crushing blow to the Democrats and will prove the first in a long series of steps towards bringing black Americans back home to the Republican Party.
First Step? It's about time some conservative acknowledged that the GOP hasn't done one single thing to address the concerns of African-American since Reconstruction.
Here's a prediction that seems a little more in line with reality since Jim Talent does hold a 2.6 point lead in the Big Mo. But that's well within the margin of error, prompting NRO to call this "nip-and-tuck contest" a toss-up.
3. Talent will win in Missouri
This was never really in doubt - though the Democrats put up their pathetic best against him. Missouri used to be a swing State - it is now a reliably Republican State. Time for punditry to find some other bellweather State to hang their predicitons on.
See, it's not the actual pick that's astounding, it's the pompous statement that one of the most hotly contested nail-biters is really a foregone conclusion in Noonan's mind. Come ON, Noonan, even Novakula says this race is on the "razor's edge." I know you have no shame, Noonan, but have you no clue either?
The term you're looking for is intellectual honesty. While Talent is up as of yesterday's Zogby poll, which has always had him with a slight lead, he was down by the same margin in Rassmussen and Survey USA, just three days ago.
Noonan makes another safe bet, but without so much nonsense.
4. Corker will win in Tennessee
Compared to the other close Senate races, this one's a GOP blow-out according to Zogby: TN Corker: 49% Ford: 42% Zogby/WSJ NEW 10/19. Again, Rassmussen would differ. This race has truly been a roller-coaster ride and is now on a very tight track. If anyone thinks they can call this race before 3:00 am November 8th, I want what they're smoking.
Next, Noonan makes a couple of non-predictions. Why? I think he likes the sound his fingers make when they hit the keyboard.
5. I haven't the foggiest notion of Chaffee will win in Rhode Island, or if DeWine will win in Ohio
Here's your clue from your Powerline buddies:
RI Chafee: 39% Whitehouse: 49% Rasmussen 10/04
OH DeWine: 45% Brown: 49% Zogby/WSJ NEW 10/19
Just go ahead and say it, Noonan. Call these two losses for the GOP, as much as it may pain you. Face it, Rhode Island is a blow-out and Chafee is self-destructing. But since Chafee is to the GOP as Lieberman is to the Democrats, it's a wash anyway.
As for Mike DeWine, three words: Read. My. Lips. Stick a fork in him.
Noonan's sad take on Ohio is just precious -- and as insightful as a 5 year-old girl's lament over a lost dolly:
The really sad part of this is that Ken Blackwell will pay the price for other GOPers screwing up. DeWine, though, will pull it out in the end - Brown is just entirely too liberal for essentially conservative and GOP Ohio.
Feh!
Any other Buckeyes or Bobcats (especially Bobcats) who'd beg to differ with him. Speaking as an essentially liberal Ohioan, if we're so conservative, why on earth would they have to go to such great lengths to suppress Democratic votes here?
Okay, back to the horse race. Naturally that means if a Republican is up by even one point, Noonan goes bold. Powerline is citing NRO's analysis of Zogby's poll with Kean up by ... TWO!!! Noonan's encyclopedic political prognostication:
6. Kean will win in New Jersey
This is the first time Zogby has reported Kean ahead this cycle. Quinnipiac and Rassmussen have Menendez up by four along with 8 out of eleven polls taken within the last 30 days giving the edge to the Democrat. There has been a complete about-face in New Jersey and the trend, especially in light of the national disintegration of Brand GOP, looks very blue.
Wrong again Noonan.
