Two polls, two narratives about Bush

USA Today Gallup poll: Bush ratings rebound, approval hits highest level in a year (44%).

Rasmussen Reports: 41% of American adults approve of the way that President Bush is performing his job and 58% disapprove. That's about where the numbers were before the President’s 9/11 speech. In other words, his 9/11 bounce came back to earth. Furthermore, he's been at, or around, 41% in the Rasmussen poll since March.

Polling disparities are not new and neither are disparities in the narrative.

Let's look at the polling disparities first:

The Gallup poll was done between 9/15-9/17. The results of the Rasmussen poll for those same three days (released 9/18) showed Bush trending downward and polling at 41%. The Gallup poll is done twice a month; the Rasmussen poll is released every day, showing the combined results from the previous three days ("3-day rolling average"). Gallup shows Bush trending upwards (from 31% in May to 44% today) whereas Rasmussen has his support flat during the same time.

As far as disparities in the narrative, well, that is the perogative of the news outlet. Gallup's numbers might be the leading indicator of a Bush resurgence, but so many other stories indicate otherwise. It's probably best to discount all of these, on both sides. After all, Bush is not on the ballot this November; Congress is. And if you look at how they are "narrating" their relationship to Bush so far, "radioactive" is a word that comes to mind.

Speaking of Congressional elections: the Gallup poll includes results from the generic "Democrat or Republican" poll, showing it tied 48-48, erasing a 9-pt. Dem lead from the last poll. But inidividual races are polling in each state and district, with the names of specific candidates. In those polls, the Dems are currently ahead, and If the election were held today there is a good chance that they would regain the House and possibly the Senate as well.

So who and what do you believe? Best not to look into the crystal ball because you wind up eating ground glass.