The Party of Bourbon vs. The Party of Gin
Back in the day, political campaigns marshalled their supporters based on broad characteristics such as where they lived. Democrats would concentrate on cities and Republicans, on the suburbs.
But that was then, this is now:
In their search for voters, Republican strategists can quickly pull up information not only about voting histories, age, address and marital status, but also consumer habits, vehicle ownership, magazine subscriptions, church membership, hobbies, major purchases -- even whether a household prefers bourbon over gin. (Bourbon drinkers tend to be Republican; gin is more often a Democrat's drink).
This is important because less than half of the eligible voters actually show up on Election Day; the others have fallen off the radar screens entirely, so voter registration lists are useless in finding these folks. In addition, some voters thought to be reliably Democratic or Republican are, in fact, "persuadable," i.e., they can be convinced to vote "against" their party by an appeal to a narrow (or "micro-targeted") set of concerns they may have:
In Michigan, for example, the GOP contacted snowmobilers by mail, telephone or other personal communication suggesting that Democrats' environmental views stood in the way of greater opportunities for snowmobiling.Lists of snowmobiler owners, for example, are easy (and relatively cheap) to buy and the potential upside is huge. For example, control of the US Senate may hinge on whether Republicans can defeat Michigan incumbent Senator Debbie Stabenow. And if they do, it will be because they said the right thing to the right people:
"The revolutionary change here is that Republicans ... are going after voters as individuals, as opposed to a census tract or a media market," says Harold Ickes, a Democratic Party strategist.Ickes, a close advisor to Senator Hillary Clinton, is one of many Democrats who are on the cutting edge of efforts to build a micro-targeting capability (his is called "Catalist") that matches that of the Republicans' (called "Voter Vault"). But the Democrats came late to this technique and have a long way to go to catch up.
The key question is this: will this election be close enough that micro-targeting will make the difference? Or is this one of those rare elections when voter dissatisfaction is so great that nothing the Republicans can do will stop the Democrats from taking over in the House and/or Senate? We'll have to wait and see.
While we're waiting, read Remapping the Culture Debate by Garance Franke-Ruta. It is one of the best pieces I've read on the topic of micro-targeting.
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