E Pluribus Unum

No matter what I say, Larry Sabato keeps trying to forecast the future. Today, he admits surprise that 40 (not 30) Congressional seats are now competitive in this election cycle:

Where does the "Ferocious Forty" leave us? Well, for starters, 31 out of 40 are currently held by the GOP, which means Democrats would need only to win 24 of the 40 to seize control of the House--a much easier feat than previously estimated.

In brief, he's sketching a plausible nightmare scenario: one party or the other emerges with one of the smallest House majorities in US history -- 218-217. It's a nightmare because a small coalition -- say, conservative Democrats or liberal Republicans -- would hold the balance of power. If that happens, look for some members to switch parties, if not vote with the opposition.

I have no idea if he's right. I thought the 2004 election for President was NOT going to be close and I was wrong, again proving that he who looks into the crystal ball is bound to eat broken glass.