October Surprise: War With Iran?
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Contrary to what I've urged previously, it now looks more likely that the Israel-Lebanon war really might be the undercard to the main bout: US-Iran. Meteor Blades tells it.
I've said it before, I'll say it again -- the limits of conventional US military force are staring us in the face. There are only two realistic options: (a) use nukes to demonsrate that the US will start using these as necessary to enforce US foreign policy and protect US national interests, or (b) relinquish US influence in the region.
I don't think that the current crew will go for (b)
The only thing I can imagine that might mitigate the implementation of (a) is this: perhaps, perhaps the publication of the details of the aftermath of a nuclear strike in Iran (hundreds of thousands of dead) might be someone's idea of scaring Iran into abandoning its own nuclear pursuit.
Problem is: we tried that in the run up to the Iraq war. Remember "shock and awe?" The actual bombing campaign, while horrible, wasn't nearly as bad as the pre-war threat. So now, we're the boy who cried wolf.
Bottom line: we're about to go eyeball-to-eyeball with Iran. Who will blink first?
Missiles of the Mother of All October Surprises?
I got a baaaad feelin'.
Bottom line: we're about to go eyeball-to-eyeball with Iran. Who will blink first?
If you were Iran, would you blink first? Keeping in mind that development of nukes means being free of the threat of US military action (see Pakistan)?
Continuing the poker metaphor, I think Iran holds all the cards here.