E Pluribus Unum

If you buy one "House Republican Majority" contract at today's bid price of 48 AND the GOP does retain control of the House in November, THEN that contract will close, or settle, at 100. Your profit will be 52 points x 10¢ per point or $5.20. If, on the other hand, the goopers lose control, well, you lose, too -- all the money you spent to buy the contracts at 48 each is down the drain.

So, when you bid and buy at 48, you are essentially putting your money where your mouth is. You are saying you believe there is a 48% chance that the House will remain under Republican control.

Similarly, when traders bid and buy at today's price of 80 on "Senate Republican Majority" contracts, they are telling us that they believe that the GOP has an 80% chance hanging on to the Senate.

Is this a perfect system for predicting outcomes? Not necessarily. But like I said -- follow the money. Traders enter the market to make money, which is as good a way as any to measure the accuracy of the information that they use to make their trading decisions.

That said, here's what the market is predicting in specific Senate contests -- remember, the percentage represents the chance of that candidate winning, not his or her approval rating or any other kind of polling response:

• Connecticut: Lieberman (60%, mkt is up) beats Lamont and Schlesinger
  
• Missouri: Talent (55%, mkt is steady) beats McCaskill
  
• Montana: Tester (60%, mkt is steady) beats Burns
  
• Ohio: Brown (66%, mkt is up) beats DeWine
  
• Pennsylvania: Casey (75%, mkt is steady) beats Santorum
  
• Rhode Island: Whitehouse (70%, mkt is steady) beats either Chafee or Laffey
  
• Tennessee: Corker (70%, mkt is steady) beats Ford
  
• Virginia: Allen (65%, mkt is down) beats Webb

Intrade is not the only one by any means. I would encourage y'all to scan other prediction markets. Bring your results here and let's discuss what we're seeing.