Kana: Not the first time it happened
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Very bad for everyone (except Hizbullah). And, worse yet, not the first time it has happened in Kana.
Now, as a rule, I don’t believe in coincidences. So is there more to this than meets the eye?
UPDATE: Growing evidence that the Kana collapse and resulting deaths were staged.
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“Growing evidence that the Kana collapse and resulting deaths were staged.”
Please, please tell me that you regret catapulting this shameless propaganda.
I’m getting to the point, Ara.
Before this shit gets completely out of control, before Syria finds an excuse to come in shooting, it’s got to stop. Israel is escalating, going in on the ground, in force — no good can come of this.
The French and Turks are on board to secure the border — two countries that damn well better come to the table. So are the Greeks who (in a sure sign of the apocalypse) are willing to conduct a joint operation with Turkey. This needs to happen.
This is turning into the neocon wet dream. We’ve got a UN resolution (today) against Iran that they’ve already rejected — giving Cheney all the pretext he needs to dive in, while Israel evicerates Syria.
This is not what we ever wanted in defending Israel from Hezbollah — letting it be a pretext for Kristol and Krauthammer and Rummy and Perle to finally get the war they’ve lusted after for decades.
I’m not touching the Qana incident. Too soon. Too much unknowable during the fog of war. The damage is done regardless of who is propagandizing whom.
Strategically however, knowing that Bush sees this as an opportunity and not a tragedy, the developing situation will become damn near irresistable to Commander Codpiece. It’s got to stop before Bush decides to throw the dice, again. The ass has nothing to lose with another gamble — except millions of lives.
We’ve proved our point, fuck with us and you’ll get more than a bloody nose.
Persuade me otherwise. I don’t want Hezbollah to be able to call this a victory any more than you do. What additional strategic goal can be accomplished by continuing or escalating Israel’s tactical response?
Shep:
I regret that civilians are being killed in Lebanon by Israeli shelling.
But I don’t regret insinuating that Hezbollah may have staged the aftermath of the Qana incident.
God knows it wouldn’t be the first time Israel’s enemies had done stuff like that — Jenin’s mobile corpses, the Gaza beach blast, and so forth.
Call me skeptical, OK?
Mark:
Why are you yelling at me? I’ve already outlined a position that Democrats can take in this affair. Beyond that, I have no pull with Israel or Lebanon — or Hezbollah.
I do know this: the rocket attacks will have to stop.
re: the firing of missiles into Israel by Hizbullah –
Here’s a link to numerous videos from the Israel Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Hizbullah rockets being fired from Lebanon into Israel:
“Call me skeptical, OK?”
Yeah, here’s another skeptic. Nice company you’re keeping these days.
Yeah, I saw that. He’s a jerk, of course.
That said, the investigation is in the early stages so you can’t really say anything for sure. But I think there are a lot of legitimate questions about what really happened in Qana.
I give Israel a lot of credit for trying to get to the bottom of the matter.
You can see it playing out in the Israeli press right now.
Don’t you wish the US press was that curious about the facts?
“Yeah, I saw that. He’s a jerk, of course.”
He’s a propagandist, Ara. Just like the slimeballs planting this grotesque lie in the Israeli press, just as Israel always does to avoid the consequences of it’s criminal actions. It’s one way rational, unbiased people know that they are not innocent victims.
But you’re with the Bush apologists now so I don’t expect you to see what’s actually happening.
Oh relax, man. I think I have a pretty balanced view of the situation.
First of all, I don’t believe you have all the facts on this incident. Neither do I. The difference is I’m withholding judgement of the Israelis while you are not.
Second, I’ve already outlined a series of initiatives that Democrats should be following in trying to untangle the mess in that part of the world. It’s fair and realistic. Perhaps you have an alternate solution — beyond trying the Israeli government for war crimes?
Let’s start with those two points and go from there.
“First of all, I don’t believe you have all the facts on this incident.”
You’re right. All I have is the history of Israeli violence against civilians, her obfuscatory propaganda and Occam’s Razor. Regardless, collective punishment and blowing up buildings without identifying who occupies them are war crimes. A trail is just an exercise and, as we’ve already discovered, no one will hold Israel to account as long as we defend her. Until American politicians (Democrats and Republicans) can say speak the truth of both Hezbollah’s and Israel’s savagery (and our own war crimes) loudly and unequivocally, there’s no stopping this death spiral short of genocide.
Looking at this, only her latest in a long history of violence and oppression against innocent noncombatants and ask yourself if Israel is in any way complicit in Arab hatred of her. Based on your answer, ask yourself how “balanced” is your view. I can walk a mile in Israeli shoes, can you do the same in Arab shoes?
I didn’t mean to shout. And the jury may never be in regarding Qana, although the tide of public opinion has been very vocal.
I can safely say that all of us don’t want any more episodes like that and would rather all the killing stopped.
The deal breaker for me is if this thing escalates beyond just Hezbollah and Israel. I panicked a bit yesterday. I’m feeling much better now.
I’d feel a lot better if Ara had more pull with the combatants.
Based on your answer, ask yourself how “balanced” is your view. I can walk a mile in Israeli shoes, can you do the same in Arab shoes?
As I’ve said before, three generations of my family lived in Lebanon. We lived in Tripoli, Beirut (where I was born, lived and worked) and in the Bekaa Valley where my uncle still lives. I’ve been to the cities and the mountain villages. I’ve even spent time in Baalbek (which is in the news today). I’ve worked with Arabs and they have been my friends.
In fact, my best friend as a boy was a kid whose father was a Syrian Moslem and whose mother was a Lebanese Christian. They had a picture of Gamal Nassar hanging in the dining room at during a time when other families had JFK and FDR. They also hung a Lebanese flag in the basement playroom.
Shep, I think I have a pretty good idea, probably better than almost anyone you know, of what it is to walk a mile in Arab shoes, OK?
the tide of public opinion has been very vocal.
That ain’t always what it’s cracked up to be — there are 1.6 billion Muslims in the world versus 14 million Jews. The tide is, indeed, great.
I can safely say that all of us don’t want any more episodes like that and would rather all the killing stopped.
I regret the entire war. But here we are.
The deal breaker for me is if this thing escalates beyond just Hezbollah and Israel.
I voiced my solution to this some time ago; I still stand by it.
I’d feel a lot better if Ara had more pull with the combatants.
Unfortunately, I do not. My families in Lebanon and Israel are pretty much powerless, although I will pass along your high regard for my capabilities.
:^)
Seriously, only the US can stop it from escalating.
“Seriously, only the US can stop it from escalating.”
So what you saying, in essence, is that Israel is completely incapable of controlling its own irrational, destructive and self-destructive impulses, much like a small child playing with explosives. Unfortunately for that kid, - and everyone else - her Uncle Sam is a reprobate guardian.
That’s one way to frame it, I suppose. Not one I would support, of course, but there you are.
In my estimate, the US is the only one who has the ability to offer (dis)incentives to all sides — Israel, Lebanon (our two best allies in the region, IMHO) as well as Iraq, Iran and Syria — and have a shot at carrying it off. Add in there the Saudis, Jordanians and Egyptians and you have the chess board set for an interesting match…
Who else, Shep? Russia? Not sure if they bring anything to the table these days.
Now, let me make a distinction between “the US” and “the Bush administration.” For the umpteenth time I’ll point out that I think Bush is missing a huge opportunity here. My plan, if implemented by someone who had the desire, would yield far greater returns for everyone, than Bush’s plan.
Check that — “Holy crap, what now?” is not a plan.
“Who else, Shep?”
Jesus, Ara. How about Israel? She has the F-16s and the stolen land. Those are the fundamental (dis)incentives.
Shep! Israel is on my list — in fact she is listed #1. Read my previous comment.
As far as (dis)incentives go, everybody has to get something in return for what they give up. This is the case in all negotiations.
Of course, maybe that’s where you and I are stuck: you’re conducting a trial and I am horse-trading.
Sorry, Ara, you did indeed.
But I’m not interested in trials or dog-and-pony shows (I know war crimes and cover-ups when I see them). Horse-trading requires at least one party who is acting in good faith and since Israel has all of the horses (including the ones stolen from her trading partners), I expect her to make a reasonable offer. I haven’t seen that yet and it’s almost 40 years overdue.
And let me clear, lest some slimy neocon suggest that means appeasing terrorists. Israel’s offer needs to be made, not to Hezbollah or Hamas, but to the Palestinian and (now) Lebanese peoples. The honorable offer almost can’t be too generous to them to compensate for what Israel has unjustly and unnecessarily taken from them. Even before that, she has to stop her larceny, period.
since Israel has all of the horses…I expect her to make a reasonable offer.
See that’s another part where we differ: right now I think Hezbollah has the upper hand, as does Iran and Syria. Lebanon and Israel are in a tight spot.
Even before that, she has to stop her larceny, period.
OK, well, “larceny” to you, “captured territory after an unsuccessful war” to me.
Hold that thought….
In any negotiation, as you know, everyone has to feel like they are getting something of value in return for something they are giving up.
That said, “land for peace” is not only a tired nostrum because it demands something concrete in return for an attitude or emotion. The next thing you know, someone gets out of the wrong side of bed and we’ve got war again.
(See First Lebanon War circa 1982-2000, Oslo Accords, circa 1993, Gaza Strip, circa 2006, etc.)
I’ll stick with my talking points.
“See that’s another part where we differ: right now I think Hezbollah has the upper hand, as does Iran and Syria. Lebanon and Israel are in a tight spot.”
I think that is the crux of our disagreement about Israel. You see Israel as a helpless actor being victimized by others, I believe that Hezbollah and Hamas and the PLO are playing the hands (to switch metaphors in mid stream) Israel has dealt them (a hand full of Israeli soldiers should never have bought Hezbollah into the high-stakes game).
In any event, short of perpetual war or genocide, land for peace is the only game in town and, comparatively, a hell of a winning hand for everyone. Obviously, Israel holds those cards.
You see Israel as a helpless actor being victimized by others…
No. I see Israel as a book of matches on the 50-yardline of Tiger Stadium — and being asked to give up half the matches.
P.S. Again, “land for peace” is a dicey proposition. It worked when Israel gave back the Sinai after capturing it during the 6-Day War — but Egypt signed a treaty with Israel.
But until “somebody” (Hamas? Fatah?) signs a similar peace treaty (not a cease-fire or a truce), I don’t favor her giving back the West Bank.
Why should she? She unilaterally pulled out of Lebanon and Gaza and what did she get? Not peace, but rockets.
Israeli public opinion is sometimes hard to figure out, but this time nearly three-quarters of Israelis back this war to the hilt. And why not? They saw what happened the last time Israel left Lebanon.
“Land for peace” only works if you get a peace treaty at least as good as the one the Israelis have with Jordan and Egypt. It would have to be with Lebanon and probably Syria. And whoever wins the civil war inside the PA.
BTW, I forgot to ask you this question:
Do you believe that there is a way for Israel to win a “fourth generation war” with the likes of Hezbollah or Hamas?
Or do you think they should just stop fighting and take whatever terms they can get?
“Do you believe that there is a way for Israel to win a “fourth generation war” with the likes of Hezbollah or Hamas?”
Perhaps. But Israel’s only chance is to give back the land to very near the exact borders on every map, unilaterally, just as she took it and offer recompense for her crimes against innocent Arab peoples.
Taking the land has hardly won her peace. Giving it back is the only way she can earn it.
C’mon Ara, don’t be dense. Israel’s occupation of any land to which she is not entitled (i.e., West Bank, Gaza, Golan Heights) and her killing and oppression of innocents, provides the entire premise (or justification, depending on your point of view) for Hamas and Hezbollah. The only way Israel will survive is to remove any such rationale.
OK, so I’ll put you down for “stop fighting and take whatever terms they can get.”
No, don’t. I think that Israel has the opportunity to make a gesture that would rock the western world and her enemies to their core. She should set the terms (as she always does) but, this time, in way that live up to her ideals. And, amazingly, for the most part it would cost her only what does not belong to her anyway.
Is this another one of your existential exercises?
:^)
Seriously, how is this different than what she did this year in Gaza and in Lebanon in 2000?
No, I’m serious, even though I think the chances of Israel ever doing such a thing are somewhere from sublime to ridiculous. What is different is that it removes nearly all recognized anti-Israeli grievances, puts Israel squarely on the moral high ground and the civilized world behind Israel and against her enemies. I believe she could win the unqualified support of the entire world, in a worst case leaving out only a completely isolated Iran and Syria.
On its own initiative Israel announces that it is: 1) suspending all military activities that are not strictly defensive (including assassinations or attacks on civilian neighborhoods in Lebanon, the West Bank and Gaza), 2) dismantling all West Bank settlement barriers (and all other barriers within the West Bank) and moving settlers who wish to move to Israel proper and ending its occupation, 3) releasing all captives who are not to be properly tried (Geneva Convention wise) for violent crimes against Israel, 4) return the Golan Heights to Syria, 5) welcoming negotiations with the Palestinian government over the final settlement of Jerusalem and right of return, and 6) begin negotiations with western nations in support of a “Marshall Plan” for Lebanon and the new state of Palestine.
Obviously, such a proposal would have to wait until after Hezbollah stopped its attacks against Israel but she should use any cessation of violence, however it is obtained, as a pretext for such an action.
Outrageous, eh? But how would it actually weaken Israel? How would it strengthen her? How would it weaken or strengthen the entire west in its battle against Islamic radicalism?
We’ve been doing the same stupid sh*t for more than 40 years and this is where we are. Isn’t it time we tried something truly bold and unquestionably righteous?
Again, your prescription sounds more like the sentencing phase of a trial instead of a negotiation. It’s not going to happen, Shep. If Israel is as powerful as you say (which she is not) they will flip you the bird and walk away.
But how would it actually weaken Israel?
By proving to all her enemies that she was, in fact, a war criminal all along. That may be self-evident to you, but it isn’t to me. And I’m not alone.
We’ve been doing the same stupid sh*t for more than 40 years and this is where we are.
Well, let’s agree that Israel has beaten the odds against her survival for several generations. If you’d look at it that way, you have to agree that she is doing something right, not everything wrong.
What is different is that it removes nearly all recognized anti-Israeli grievances,
“Nearly all.” It misses the main one: The quasi-Nassarites, the neo-fascists and the religious fundamentalists want Israel wiped off the map. Until those constituencies are shamed out of power, Israel is walking on the edge of a knife.
I’m still pondering this question: is there a better, more effective way for Israel to fight these fourth generation wars against her enemies? It’s an important question because her current strategy and tactics are kind of obsolete.
I think it is an important question to ponder because, unfortunately, those wars will not be stopping any time soon.
Shep:
Do me a favor and read this op-ed piece by Brent Scowcroft.
Would his solution work for you?
“Until those constituencies are shamed out of power, Israel is walking on the edge of a knife.”
What the hell do you think I’m talking about? As I keep trying to get through to you, the popularity of those constituencies so long after the creation of the Israeli state is proof positive of her crimes – if you are unable to believe your own eyes. The fact that you can’t and you are “not alone” in your myopia is exactly why we are where we are, of course allowing that the other side is similarly blind to its own unrighteousness.
I don’t see much difference in the Scowcroft approach except that it relies on the Unites States for the impetuous. It would be much better if Israel herself was seen to be the force for justice for the Palestinians (see your point above), rather than a reluctant bride but, of course, she’s too busy giving everyone the bird.
…the popularity of those constituencies so long after the creation of the Israeli state is proof positive of her crimes – if you are unable to believe your own eyes.
Again, I think it is proof positive of how bereft these factions are of any kind of common sense about the realities.
In other words, it is yet again proof that “they never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity.”
Pretty much every step along the way, the residents of the territories in question (back in 1948 there were no “Palestinians”) have been a party to one sort of solution or another — and every time, they have walked away from the table. Why? Because apparently they cannot abide the idea that Israel would have an equal footing with them in the region.
The idea that half a loaf is better than none is, apparently, anathema to them. The perfect is, much to their detriment, the enemy of the good.
Shep: I understand this mindset. As I said before, I’ve spent major parts of my life living with people who subscribe to it. And I’ll tell you this: it is hurting them badly, very badly. And by direct and indirect means, it is hurting everyone in the region.
I’m not crazy about Scowcroft’s solution. I like mine better. But the differences are not that great between them. They both share the idea that everyone has to give something up to get something else in return.
So, because I didn’t understand your answer before, I’ll ask you again: does the Scowcroft plan work for you?
“I understand this mindset. As I said before, I’ve spent major parts of my life living with people who subscribe to it. And I’ll tell you this: it is hurting them badly, very badly.”
Ara, I wish there was some way to make you see that you and many Israelis share that exact “mindset,” in mirror image. And it is hurting them (and many other people) very badly.
“…does the Scowcroft plan work for you?”
Yes.
OK, then, we’re making progress.